Until last year, the past 10 years the winners of the Super Bowl are a combined 58-79 ATS for a lousy 42% win ratio following their Super Bowl victory. While the losers of the Super Bowl are even worse the following year at 64-94 for a 41% win ratio. Combined, that is a record of 122-173 ATS for a low 41% win ratio. I mentioned all these figures last year in the Super Bowl Football Betting Trend article, which was featured in Thehooks Book.
New England and Carolina broke the football betting trend last year by combining for a 68% winning percentage Against The Spread (ATS). New England was 13-4-2 (76%) and Carolina was 9-6-1 (60%).
A winning ATS record the following season for a Super Bowl Participant had only happened 4 times out of 20 chances the past ten years. (2 teams times 10 years = 20 chances) The Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 for a 58% win ratio after losing to the Dallas Cowboys back in Super Bowl XXX. Denver had a winning record ATS twice, 12-7 (63%) following their victory against Green Bay in Super Bowl XXXII and after their victory against Atlanta in Super Bowl XXXIII they went 9-5 (64%) the next year. Baltimore barely finished over 50% at 9-8 (53%) after beating the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV. Carolina and New England increased the total to six with their sterling records last year.
So does the football betting trend that has dominated the NFL make a comeback or do Philadelphia and New England continue the success from last year for the previous Super Bowl participants? I think the success from last year will continue this year not because I am superstitious but I think the lines may favor the Eagles and the Patriots.
The Eagles will have the harder time continuing the football betting trend and getting the lines a bettor wants (when looking to bet the Eagles) but I think they will continue to get better and dominate like last year and cover most of the big point spreads that come their way. They finished 12-7 ATS last year and were 6-4 ATS when laying over a touchdown. But if the Owens situation becomes a problem the lines will favor the Eagle bettors and I think McNabb would cherish the opportunity to perform at a high level without TO.
The Patriots bettors should receive favorable lines because they lost both coordinators. You should be able to jump on the Patriots at a great price and make some money early. People will be looking for them to fall back but I would not bet against Belichick if I were you. The man can coach and he will actually use this to his advantage and have his players ready to prove everyone wrong. Motivation will not be a problem. If they stumble the first 4 weeks, bettors will make a killing jumping on them or staying with them because the lines will change even more.
Leo Mendelsohn
Richard Peraldo
Thehooks
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Written By: Leo Mendelsohn
